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Emerging Markets: Investing with Political Risk

Multinational Finance Journal, 2001, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 155-173
Radu Tunaru , Middlesex University, U.K.

Abstract:
This paper presents a model that measures the impact of political risk on portfolio investment when the political risks are multivariate and correlated across countries. The multivariate approach generalizes the single country model but retains most of its characteristics in terms of its ability to price political risk based on the stochastic process of exposure to loss and the expected frequency of loss causing events. The methodology is compatible with modern portfolio theory, straightforward to apply and can accommodate the traditional techniques in political risk assessment for the estimation of the relevant parameters.

Keywords : geometric Brownian motion; insurance policy; Poisson arrival process; portfolio investment; political risk
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